Economists at Commerzbank expect the EUR/PLN pair to advance nicely over the coming months.
Inflation in Poland will likely remain stubbornly above target
We forecast the Euro to remain strong through 2023, but weaken once again during 2024.
Given Zloty’s high-beta relationship to the Euro, we see EUR/PLN rising again towards 4.75 as inflation disappoints once again in 2024.
Our base case remains that inflation will moderate over the coming quarter, which will trigger a rate cutting cycle by NBP, but after that, inflation will not converge fully to target, hence we see 2024 as a potential Zloty-negative period
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