EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is moderately declining, correcting after a noticeable growth the day before, as a result of which the instrument managed to renew local highs from August 22. The pressure on the position of the US currency was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, investors reacted negatively to the decline in the Consumer Confidence Index in August from 114.0 points (revised from 117.0 points) to 106.1 points, while analysts expected a slight decline to 116.0 points. It is worth noting that the macroeconomic background from Europe also remained mostly negative: the German Consumer Confidence Index from the analytical portal Gfk Group fell from -24.6 points to -25.5 points in September, which turned out to be worse than forecasts at the level of -24.3 points. The focus of investors today will be macroeconomic statistics from Germany and the eurozone. Analysts suggest that the German Consumer Price Index in August may slow down from 6.2% to 6.0% YoY, while the monthly rate is likely to remain at the same level of 0.3%. In turn, the level of Consumer Confidence in the eurozone is expected to remain at the previous level of -16.0 points, while the Economic Sentiment Indicator may be corrected from 94.5 points to 93.7 points. Tomorrow, data on consumer inflation in France, as well as in the eurozone as a whole will be published: a slowdown in the Core CPI in the eurozone from 5.5% to 5.3% is predicted.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading lower, recouping attempts to grow at the beginning of the week, as a result of which the pound managed to retreat from the local lows of June 13. The instrument was supported yesterday by data from the US, which lowered expectations for further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The market does not predict an interest rate increase during the September meeting of the regulator; however, with a probability of about 60.0%, it relies on the November adjustment of the value by 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to increase the cost of borrowing by 25 basis points during the meeting on September 21. At the same time, the regulator is approaching its highs for the interest rate, which threaten the growth prospects of the British economy. Among the macroeconomic publications from the UK today, one should pay attention to the July statistics on Consumer Credit, forecasts for which suggest a decrease in the total volume from 1.661 billion pounds to 1.400 billion pounds, and Net Lending to Individuals may decrease from 1.8 billion pounds to 1.0 billion pounds. In turn, the number of Mortgage Approvals may be adjusted from 54.662 thousand to 50.500 thousand.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is demonstrating an active decline, correcting after a sharp rise in the instrument the day before. On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar renewed its local highs from August 24, which was the market's reaction to the publication of data from the US. The Consumer Confidence Index in August fell from 114.0 points to 106.1 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts. At the same time, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices in June amounted to -1.2% after -1.7% in May, while analysts expected -1.3%. Today, the instrument is under pressure from statistics from New Zealand, where the number of Building Permits issued in July decreased by 5.2% after rising by 3.4% in the previous month, while experts expected a slight increase in the indicator by 0.2%. With the opening of the American session, the focus of the market will shift to the report on employment in the US private sector from Automatic Data Processing (ADP): forecasts suggest a sharp slowdown in the indicator from 324.0 thousand to 195.0 thousand. Also today will be published updated data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States for the second quarter: analysts do not expect changes from the previous estimate of 2.4%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows moderate growth, correcting after the previous day's decline. The US currency retreated from the record highs of November 2022, located near the level of 147.35. The development of "bearish" sentiment on the dollar yesterday was facilitated by macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In particular, investors drew attention to the decline in Consumer Confidence Index from 114.0 points to 106.1 points, while analysts expected 116.0 points. In turn, the pressure on the yen is exerted by today's macroeconomic statistics from Japan: the Consumer Confidence Index in August fell from 37.1 points to 36.2 points, with the forecast for growth to 37.5 points. July data on the dynamics of Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be published tomorrow. Forecasts suggest a slowdown in annual sales dynamics from 5.9% to 5.4%, and Industrial Production may decline by 1.4% after rising 2.4% in the previous month.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near the level of 1936.00. The day before, the instrument showed active growth, which was the market's reaction to macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, investors drew attention to the reduction in the Consumer Confidence Index in August from 114.0 points to 106.1 points, despite the fact that before the revision, the July figure was 117.0 points, and forecasts suggested its decline only to 116.0 points. Today, the focus of the market will be on the August report from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on US private sector employment, as well as the second estimate of the annual dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter. Forecasts assume Employment Change growth of 195.0 thousand after rising by 324.0 thousand in the previous month, while GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4%. Tomorrow, investors will focus on Personal Spending statistics, which the US Federal Reserve uses as an additional marker of inflation, and on Friday the July report on the labor market will be published. Analysts' forecasts suggest an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls by 170.0 thousand, which is 17.0 thousand less than in July, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at the previous level of 3.5%.