Economists at ING are not convinced the ECB can trigger a sustainable EUR/USD rally.
A post-hike rally may not last
It is a close call, but we expect a 25 bps hike by the ECB.
Markets are pricing in a 65% implied probability of a hike, so EUR/USD should rise after the announcement if we are right. However, a full 25 bps are factored in by year-end, and it will be hard for Lagarde to convince markets the ECB can push rates even higher.
Any EUR rally may be short-lived. We expect a EUR/USD post-meeting jump to stall around 1.0800/1.0830 (if not falling short of those levels), and gradually give up gains as the Dollar’s momentum remains solid.
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