| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.8995 |
| Take Profit | 0.8840 |
| Stop Loss | 0.9060 |
| Key Levels | 0.8840, 0.9000, 0.9130, 0.9240 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.9135 |
| Take Profit | 0.9240 |
| Stop Loss | 0.9050 |
| Key Levels | 0.8840, 0.9000, 0.9130, 0.9240 |
Current trend
Against the unstable dynamics of the American currency, the USD/CHF pair is trading within a corrective trend at 0.9060.
The franc is regaining ground lost during the last quarter against stable macroeconomic statistics, as well as declining dollar quotes: according to the latest report from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), in September 90.826K citizens were registered in the country’s employment centers, which is 0.945K more than in the previous month, against which the unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, and the seasonally adjusted indicator remained at 2.1%, which is a positive factor relative to the growing values in the leading EU countries.
The American dollar is trading at 105.700 on the USD Index but institutional investor interest in the US Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase operations is significantly declining, reducing support for the national currency: according to a Financial Times report, demand for overnight transactions reached 1.28T dollars at the end of last week, which is 40.0% lower than at the beginning of summer, and more than half less than at the end of last year (2.6T dollars). The negative dynamics are developing against record government bond yields.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price is correcting and trying to consolidate below the support line of the global ascending corridor with boundaries of 0.9240–0.9130.
Technical indicators are holding a stable buy signal, preparing for a possible reversal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram, holding in the buy zone, is forming downward bars.
Resistance levels: 0.9130, 0.9240.
Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8840.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after a reversal, decline, and consolidation of the price below 0.9000 with the target at 0.8840. Stop loss – 0.9060. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.9130 with the target at 0.9240. Stop loss – 0.9050.
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