The US Dollar Index (DXY) has tried to recover a touch on Monday, with still a very long road ahead to come back to levels where it was two weeks ago. The US CPI print is expected to move the needle a bit in terms of timing on the much-anticipated first rate cut from the Fed. However, simply moving the timing by a month means no big intraday moves are to be expected as traders will likely simply tweak their portfolio to the timing of the rate cut.
On the upside, the first reclaiming ground is at 103.31, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and at the 200-day SMA near 103.71. Once broken through, the 100-day SMA is popping up at 103.74, so a bit of a double cap in that region. Depending on the catalyst that pushes the DXY upwards, 104.96 remains the key level on the topside.
The DXY is trading a bit in nomad's land, with not really any significant support levels nearby. More downside looks inevitable with 102.00 up next, which bears some pivotal relevance. Once through there, the road is open for another leg lower to 100.61, the low of 2023.
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