📊 Market Overview
EURUSD remains under bearish pressure after declining from the 1.1640 region toward 1.1160–1.1180. The H4 chart continues to show lower highs, lower lows, and repeated BOS signals.
Price is currently consolidating around 1.1200 after failing to sustain its recovery near the 1.1250–1.1270 bearish OB. My primary expectation for the next session is another test of support, with a potential breakdown toward the SSL liquidity zone.
🔍 H4 Structure
Bearish market structure remains dominant within the descending channel.
The 1.1160–1.1180 support zone has become the immediate decision area.
The 1.1250–1.1270 OB remains the key resistance for the current recovery.
SSL around 1.1120–1.1140 is the main downside liquidity objective.
📍 Main POI — 1.1160–1.1180
I will focus on a confirmed support breakdown followed by a retest. Entering before bearish displacement appears would expose the setup to another support reaction.
🎯 Primary Plan — Bearish Continuation
Directional bias: Bearish
Entry zone: 1.1160–1.1170, after a confirmed breakdown and bearish retest
Stop loss: 1.1200
TP1: 1.1140
TP2: 1.1125
Extended objective: 1.1120
Confirmation checklist:
H4 candle closes below 1.1160.
Price retraces toward 1.1160–1.1170.
M15 or M5 shows rejection with bearish displacement and MSS/BOS.
The setup is abandoned if price reclaims the breakdown area and invalidates the bearish structure before entry.
Using an illustrative entry at 1.1165, the stop at 1.1200 represents 35 pips of risk. TP2 at 1.1125 represents 40 pips of potential reward, approximately 1:1.14 before costs and slippage. The reward-to-risk ratio is modest, so the setup should be skipped if the actual entry or stop produces an unfavorable ratio.
🔄 Alternative Scenario — SSL Sweep and Recovery
If price sweeps 1.1120–1.1140 but quickly reclaims 1.1160–1.1180, I will watch for bullish MSS and displacement before considering a recovery setup.
Potential entry zone: 1.1160–1.1180 after a confirmed reclaim and successful retest
Invalidation: Below the confirmed sweep low
TP1: 1.1250–1.1270
TP2: 1.1350–1.1380
No recovery setup is valid without structural confirmation. The alternative entry and invalidation must be recalculated from the actual sweep low.
🧭 My Outlook for October 12
My primary scenario is bearish continuation toward 1.1140 and potentially 1.1125, provided the 1.1160 support breaks and the retest confirms renewed downside pressure.
If support holds, I will not force a bearish position. A liquidity sweep followed by a bullish structural shift could instead trigger a recovery toward 1.1250–1.1270.
The key level is 1.1160: a confirmed breakdown favors continuation, while a successful reclaim shifts attention toward a possible recovery.
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