🌅 Morning Update | ... dari NORDFX Global

17 Jun 2025, 14:59 · Views 217

🌅 Morning Update | 17.06.2025 🇯🇵 BoJ: No Surprises The Bank of Japan kept its short-term rate at 0.50% (8–1 vote) and announced a plan to reduce JGB purchases: 🔹 –¥400B per quarter until Q1 2026 🔹 –¥200B per quarter until Q1 2027 The BoJ highlighted slow inflation and downside risks, hinting there’s no rush for more hikes. 🇯🇵💴 📊 USD/JPY stable around 144.630. 🇺🇸 Trump & G7 Drama Trump denied leaving the G7 because of the Iran–Israel ceasefire, calling the real reason “much more important” (no details yet). His sudden exit briefly hit risk sentiment: ⚡ Oil up, gold spiked, S&P futures dropped. Later tweets reassured no strike on Tehran, calming the markets. 🕊️ Nuclear Talks Back on the Table? Trump now proposes new nuclear deal talks with Iran and a ceasefire — confirmed by multiple sources. G7 leaders stressed: ✔️ Iran must never have nuclear weapons ✔️ Israel has the right to self-defence ✔️ De-escalation is needed ✔️ Energy market impact will be watched closely. 🇨🇳 US–China & EU–China Updates 🇺🇸 The US prepared tougher export bans on semiconductors if London trade talks failed — but talks ended well, so no new bans for now. 🇪🇺 Meanwhile, the EU refuses to continue negotiations with China, signalling growing mistrust ahead of next month’s EU–China summit.

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PCE and GDP Day: What Growth and Inflation Together Tell Forex Traders | NordFX Today the US drops two heavyweight reports back to back: the third estimate of Q1 2026 GDP and the May Personal Income and Outlays report, home to the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE. 📊 GDP growth was already revised down to 1.6% annualized in the second estimate, from 2.0% at the advance reading, on weaker consumer spending and investment. Since consumption drives nearly 70% of GDP, today's number is a real time read on how stretched US households are. Inflation has been climbing, not cooling. April's PCE ran 3.8% year over year, core at 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Economists expect May's print to push higher, toward roughly 4.1% headline, the hottest since 2023, driven largely by the oil shock from the Israel Iran war that began in late February. 🛢️ There is a silver lining: crude has dropped sharply this week, with WTI near $70 and Brent near $73.50, the lowest since the war started, as ceasefire talks edge forward, though still fragile, with flashpoints in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz. A cooler May reading would ease pressure on the Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in his first meeting on June 17, a fourth straight hold, but dropped dovish forward guidance. Half the committee now sees a hike by year end, and futures markets price roughly 70% odds of one by September. 🏦 That tension is exactly why today matters for FX. A hot PCE plus solid GDP would push the dollar, already near a one year high, even further, with EUR/USD pinned near 1.136 and gold sliding toward $4,000. A cooler surprise could spark a relief rally in EUR, GBP and gold, especially with sterling already weak on UK political turmoil. Expect a volatile session either way. ⚡ Open your NordFX account: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... 🚀

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update — July 3, 2026 🇺🇸 USD stays soft, still digesting Thursday's weak June jobs report: only +57K vs 114K forecast, unemployment at 4.2%. Fed's September hike odds now near 50%, down from 67% pre-data. Note: US markets are closed today for Independence Day, so expect thinner liquidity. 💵 EUR/USD holding near 1.1450. 🥇 Gold steady around $4,150/oz, supported by the softer dollar. 🛢️ Oil extends its slide — WTI ~$67–68, Brent ~$70–71 — as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeps recovering. 🌏 Asian markets rallied on the softer US data: 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 +1.3%, back above 69,000 🇭🇰 Hang Seng +1.4% 🇮🇳 Sensex/Nifty +0.8% 🇯🇵 Yen firm on intervention chatter, capping Nikkei's upside 📌 Focus today: thin US holiday liquidity and any fresh Iran/Hormuz headlines steering oil. ⚠️ Trade smart, manage your risk. Have a profitable Friday with NordFX! 📈

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🚨 Fed Shock First. BoE Decision Next. Markets have already digested the Fed’s latest signal – and now all eyes turn to the Bank of England. Today’s BoE decision may not move markets because of the rate itself, but because of what it says about inflation, wages, yields and the next policy step. 📊 GBP/USD is watching the gap between Fed and BoE expectations. 🥇 Gold is watching U.S. yields, the dollar and risk sentiment. ⚠️ Traders are watching whether central-bank divergence becomes the next big market driver. Market levels shown in the image are approximate as of publication time. The full NordFX Expert Post comes after the BoE decision. Stay tuned.

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📊 NordFX Expert Post - Fed vs BoE: How Central-Bank Divergence Can Shape GBP/USD and Gold The Fed has spoken. The Bank of England has answered. Now markets have to decide which central bank matters more for the next move. 🇺🇸 The Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the message was hawkish: fewer hopes for cuts, more talk of inflation risk, and even the possibility of a 2026 hike. 🇬🇧 The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but the vote was not completely calm: 7-2, with two MPC members voting to raise rates to 4%. Inflation has eased to 2.8%, but the BoE still expects it to rise later this year as energy-price shocks from the Middle East continue to pass through the economy. 📉 For GBP/USD, this creates a difficult balance. Sterling can find support if traders see the BoE as less dovish than expected. But if the dollar stays strong after the Fed, GBP/USD may remain under pressure, especially with the pair trading around the low 1.32s. 🥇 For gold, the key battle is between fear and yields. Political turbulence and energy-market uncertainty can support safe-haven demand. But higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar usually make gold harder to hold. With gold near $4,296, the next move may depend on whether markets choose protection - or cash returns. ⚠️ The message for traders is simple: central-bank divergence is not just about rates. It is about expectations, yields, risk sentiment and how quickly markets reprice the future. Open your NordFX account and follow GBP/USD, gold and key market moves in real time: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... Market levels shown are approximate as of publication time.

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